PUBBLICAZIONI

Pubblicazioni su riviste internazionali

Three-dimensional simulation of rockfalls in Ischia, Southern Italy, and preliminary susceptibility zonation

Ischia Island is a volcano-tectonic horst in the Phlegrean Volcanic District, Italy. We investigated rockfalls in Ischia using STONE, a three-dimensional model for simulating trajectories for given detachment locations of blocks. We propose methodological advances regarding the use of high-resolution LiDAR elevation data, the localization of possible detachments sources, and the inclusion of scenario-based seismic shaking as a trigger for rockfalls. We demonstrated that raw LiDAR data are useful to distinguish areas covered by tall vegetation, allowing realistic simulation of trajectories. We found that the areas most susceptibile to rockfalls are located along the N, N-W and S-W steep flanks of Mt. Epomeo, the S and S-W coast, and the sides of some steep exposed hydrographic channels located in the southern sector of the island. A novel procedure for dynamic activation of sources depending on ground shaking, in the event of an earthquake, helped inferring a seismically-triggered source map and the corresponding rockfall trajectories, for a scenario with 475 y return time. Thus, we obtained preliminary rockfall suceptibility in Ischia both in a “static” (trigger-independent) scenario, and in a seismic shaking triggering scenario. They must not be considered a risk map, but a starting point for a detailed field analysis.

Alvioli M., De Matteo A., Castaldo R., Tizzani P., Reichenbach P. (2022). Three-dimensional simulation of rockfalls in Ischia, Southern Italy, and preliminary susceptibility zonation. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 13, 2712. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2022.2131472

Seismically induced rockfall hazards from ground motion scenarios in Italy

Physically-based simulations for slope stability are conceptually different from widely used statistical approaches. Both methods have specific advantages, depending on available data, their type and resolution and, most importantly, the aim of the study. The majority of landslide susceptibility and hazard zonations are implemented with statistical methods, especially on large scales: mostly because the data needed for physical simulations are only available in small areas.Here, we perform a hazard zonation based on the physical model STONE for the simulation of rock-falls, at 10 m resolution consistently all over Italy, and aggregating results at the slope unit level. This work follows a series of susceptibility zonations at national scale with physical models. The novelty, here, is the introduction of a seismic trigger for rock-falls, which allows to add a temporal component and obtain an estimate of seismically induced rockfall hazard.   Peak ground acceleration maps with different return times including seismic amplification represented the earthquake trigger. A data-driven map of possible rockfall sources all over Italy allowed a statistical generalization of sources, mapped by experts in sample representative locations. Eventually, application of a simple linear transformation, to map values of peak ground acceleration into activation probability of sources, links “static” rockfall simulations with time-dependent triggering phenomena. Results are maps of rockfall susceptibility with different return times, i.e., rockfall hazard. Maps of hazard values and corresponding uncertainties, aggregated at slope unit level and categorized, are readily available for download. We suggest that the new model for seismic triggering of rockfalls could be applied at the local and regional scale, for calibration with specific earthquake events, insteadof return time scenarios. On the temporal scale, this approach in principle is suited for application in near-real time.

Alvioli M., Falcone G., Mendicelli A., Mori F., Fiorucci F., Ardizzone F., Moscatelli M. (2023). Seismically induced rockfalls hazards from ground motion scenarios in Italy. Geomorphology 429, 108652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2023.108652

A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides

Over the last 2 decades, the topic of earthquake-triggered landslides (EQTLs) has shown increasing relevance in the scientific community. This interest is confirmed by the numerous articles published in international, peer-reviewed journals. In this work we present a database containing a selection of articles published on this topic from 1984 to 2021. The articles were selected through a systematic search on the Clarivate™ Web of Science™ Core Collection online platform and were catalogued into a web-based GIS (web-GIS), which was specifically designed to show different types of information. After a general analysis of the database, for each article the following aspects were identified: the bibliometric information (e.g. author(s), title, publication year), the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and the earthquake(s) addressed. The analysis allowed us to infer general information and statistics on EQTLs (e.g. relevant methodological approaches over time and in relation to the scale of investigation, most studied events), which can be useful to obtain a spatial distribution of the articles and a general overview of the topic.

Schilirò, L., Rossi, M., Polpetta, F., Fiorucci, F., Fortunato, C., and Reichenbach, P.: A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023.

A scenario-based approach for immediate post-earthquake rockfall impact assessments

Different approaches exist to describe the seismic triggering of rockfalls. Statistical approaches rely on the analysis of local terrain properties and their empirical correlation with observed rockfalls. Conversely, deterministic, or physically based approaches, rely on the modeling of individual trajectories of boulders set in motion by seismic shaking. They require different data and allow various interpretations and applications of their results. Here, we present a new method for earthquake-triggered rockfall scenario assessment adopting ground shaking estimates, produced in near real-time by a seismological monitoring network. Its key inputs are the locations of likely initiation points of rockfall trajectories, namely, rockfall sources, obtained by statistical analysis of digital topography. In the model, ground shaking maps corresponding to a specific earthquake suppress the probability of activation of sources at locations with low ground shaking while enhancing that in areas close to the epicenter. Rockfall trajectories are calculated from the probabilistic source map by three-dimensional kinematic modeling using the software STONE. We apply the method to the 1976 MI = 6.5 Friuli earthquake, for which an inventory of seismically-triggered rockfalls exists. We suggest that using peak ground acceleration as a modulating parameter to suppress/enhance rockfall source probability, the model reasonably reproduces observations. Results allow a preliminary impact evaluation before field observations become available. We suggest that the framework may be suitable for rapid rockfall impact assessment as soon as ground-shaking estimates (empirical or numerical models) are available after a seismic event.

Alvioli M., Poggi V., Peresan A., Scaini C., Tamaro A., Guzzetti F. (2023). A scenario-based approach for immediate post-earthquake rockfall impact assessment. Landslides (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02127-2

Rockfall susceptibility and seismically induced rockfall susceptibility with a physical model applied at different scales in Italy

In this contribution, I have summarized work done in the last few years to describe rockfall susceptibility and seismically induced rockfall susceptibility and hazard in Italy. This effort required heterogeneous data, different methods and, most importantly, a wide range of skills and expertise. Therefore, the work I am going to describe resulted from the collaboration of many people both within my Institute and from other Institutes.

Alvioli M. (2024). Rockfall susceptibility and seismically induced rockfall susceptibility with a physical model applied at different scales in Italy. Transactions, Japanese Geomorphological Union 44(3), 106-155, 2023 (DOI to appear; ISSN 0389-1755).

 

Presentazioni a congressi nazionali e internazionali

  • De Matteo A., Alvioli M., Bonfante A., Buonanno M., Castaldo R., Tizzani P. Slope stability monitoring system via three-dimensional simulations of rockfalls in Ischia Island, Southern Italy. EGU 2022 – 23-27 maggio 202, Vienna. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5618
  • Tizzani P., Reichenbach P., F. Fiorucci, Alvioli M., Moscatelli M., Bonfante A., and the Fra.Si. Team. FRA.SI.project. An integrated multi-scale methodology for the zonation of landslide-induced hazard in Italy. EGU 2022 – 23-27 maggio 2021, Vienna. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12927
  • Alvioli M. Physically based simulations of seismically induced rockfalls. Italy-Japan joint workshop on landslide monitoring systems and related topics 4-5 novembre 2021, online. https://www.irpi.cnr.it/conference/italy-japan-joint-workshop-on-landslide-monitoring-systems-and-related-topics/
  • Alvioli M. Rockfall susceptibility and seismically induced rockfall susceptibility at regional and national scale. Landslide Scientific Assessment Conference: Landslide hazard 18-20 ottobre 2022 – online (invited talk). https://landscient.com/conference/
  • Alvioli M. Rockfall susceptibility and seismically induced rockfall susceptibility at regional and national scale. Japanese Geomorphological Union Fall Meeting 2022, international symposium on Engineering Geomorphology 5-6 novembre 2022, Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Invited talk). https://sites.google.com/view/jgu2022/symposium
  • Mendicelli A., Mori F., Falcone G., Peronace E., Moscatelli M., Naso G., Alvioli M. New simplified models for earthquake-triggered landslides in large area: application to Italian case studies. EGU 2021 – 19-30 aprile 2021, Vienna. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15552
  • Schilirò L., Rossi M., Polpetta F., Fiorucci F., Fortunato C., Reichenbach P. A systematic review of scientific literature on earthquake-induced landslides. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2022 (Vienna, 22-27 maggio 2022). https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7045, 2022. 

  • Ardizzone F., Alvioli M., Falcone G., Mendicelli A., Mori F., Fiorucci F., Moscatelli M. Seismically induced rockfall hazard from a physically based model at national scale in Italy. Second IRPI Workshop “Mitigation of hydro-geological risk and global change: answers from the scientific community”, Rome, July 3-5, 2023.

  • Mori F., Mendicelli A., Varone C, Ciotoli G., Moscatelli M., Alvioli M. Real Time earthquake-induced landslides prediction modeling using machine learning. Second IRPI Workshop “Mitigation of hydro-geological risk and global change: answers from the scientific community”, Rome, July 3-5, 2023.